Pantun Raya

Some pantun raya that I love:

Kelantan
Make ike cicoh budu
Jange lupo tamboh satar
Kelik ghayyo toksey laju
Nati ghayyo dale spita

Terengganu
Makang ubi jamang jepong
Makang kepok cicah cuke
Bulang pose mung bengong
Bulang raye mung gile

Pahang
Sepadan Pahang ada kasino
Nasi dagang ikan patin
Jange mu masam muko
Raya makan rendang sadin

Johor
Cegitu cegini awak suke
Awak suke kite tak suke
Esok luse hari raye
Sama-sama bersuke rie

Melaka
Hawau kau berak merate
Kaki bengkak ulau patok
Kalu balik naik kerete
Jangan pandu kalau ngantok

N. Sembilan
Masak lomak cili api
Campo dongan daun turi
Hari rayo kolumpo sopi
Tinggal penyamun dongan pencuri
(org kolumpo jgn kocik ati!!)

Selangor/K.Lumpur...
Wa cakap lu wa tak tau
Tapi wa tipu sama lu
Raya jangan buat tak tau
Angpau ada bagi gua dulu

Perak
Gulei tempoyak ikan mayong
Deroyan busok tebok tupei
Pandu hemat ingat kampong
Ase(Asal) teman selamat sampei

Kedah
Aloq Staq terketaq-ketaq
Lapaq perut makan pau
Macam mana tak ketaq
Kena paksa bagi angpau

Penang
Nasi kandaq kedai mamak
Anak mami juai pesemboq
Lepaih raya jgn dok triak
Kalu ceti mai kot dapoq

Perlis
Padang besaq kecik aja
Tempat Siam lalu lalang
Hari raya kita berbelanja
Jangan sampai menambah utang

Sabah
Nanti raya sia pulang sabah,
Teringin jumpa kawan lama,
Hari raya sudah mau datang bah,
Dosa lama diampunkan saja..

Sarawak
Bila tiba buka puasa,
Kek lapis, terubuk bakar kamek suka,
Meh sini kamek mau madah sama kita,
SELAMAT HARI RAYA!!

Buy Sell

Financial Crisis in Summary

A Summary of What's Been Going On The Past Week

The last few days and weeks have been truly extraordinary. In short, we have seen events that none of us thought we would see in our generation:
• A bank run in the UK.
• The central bank of the most powerful country of this planet offering help to households on the first page of its webpage.
• A dramatic change in this central bank’s balance sheet now filled with repackaged mortgages at the expense of government bonds.
• Financial authorities who explored new paths in search of the best market support
• Repurchase agreements of huge proportions.

Things that were unthinkable have happened:
• A central bank going out of jurisdiction to bail out an investment bank.

In the last three weeks, we saw:
• The two biggest mortgage providers of this planet becoming nationalized
• Followed one week later by the largest insurer
• The disappearance of a 150 year old financial institution, meanwhile its competitor was taken over by a bank.

And last week:
• A major shortage of dollars on a worldwide basis.
• A money market fund’s NAV dropped below $1.00 (a situation known as "broken the buck"), prompting huge redemptions and forcing other MMFs to suspend redemptions.
• Commercial paper yields rose from 3% to 5% in one day, the result of MMF sales.
• The US central bank directly injected a whopping $245bn into financial institutions.
• Other foreign central banks injected $247bn in financial markets for their part.
(Pictet)

The reflief rally following the promised $700 billion clean-up of Wall Street's toxic waste lasted barely more than a trading day. One day!! Foreign investors finally realising that they are bailing out Uncle Sam.

For most of September, Treasury bond prices rose on the theory that, in the midst of a crisis, they were a safe haven. But, as Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke have approved a bewildering array of ever more far-rearching bailouts, investors started adding up the numbers.

Depending how you account for the quasi-nationalisations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the total cost is now well over $1 trillion - and possible several trillion dollars.

If Uncle Sam was rich, this might not matter too much. But the government's deficit is already yawning as the result of a slowing economy. On conservative estimates, it will reach $450bn next year. It doesn't take a dire assumption to think it could top $1tr by 2010.

What's more, the country as a whole is still relying on funds from abroad to finance its trade gap. The current account deficit is running at $60bn a month, a cool $720bn annually

From an international investor's perspective, this is beginning to look worrying. Last week they were receiving a yield of only 3.4% for holding US government paper for 10 years. Even if inflation comes back under control and hovers around 3%, that doesn't look like much compensation. Something more like 5%-6% would be reasonable. If inflation starts to take off - and Monday's astonishing 12% spike in oil prices is not a comforting omen - a reasonable bond yield would be still higher.

In the past week, the dollar has fallen by 3% on a trade-weighted index while the price of 10-year Treasuries have dropped 4%. Put these together and foreign buyers of have suffered a 7% loss. The real worry is that there could be a stampede for the exits as they try to cash out before suffering even bigger losses. The Federal Reserve might then be forced into the unpleasant task of pushing up interest rates in the midst of a crisis.

In short, we're £u<*#&!

Mad Rally

It was the most unbelievable rally I've ever seen in my life. It was like a stampede. This was due to the SEC's temporary ban on short-selling of 799 financial stocks. Same with UK, ban on short selling for financial stocks. Friday saw Wall Street extended Thursday's rally. European markets went crazy as well. At one point FTSE100 was almost 10% up. Russian MICEX was 28% up

The ban was effective Friday, to help protect any future victims of short sellers, who have been criticized in the demise of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG. (Short selling occurs when traders borrow a stock, betting it will go down, only to buy it at a lower price)

Portfolio's a bit stable now. Headed for Maybank's iftar session at Holiday Villa. The ox-tail soup was fantastic. Then rushed back - to drive to Birmingham. Pekena nasi briani for sahur. Then melepek the whole day.

Today went to Asda, Dunelm Mill Shop (bought pillows for Shasya & Rina), then to Wing Yip - lantak one box of 40 Indo Mie - mee goreng (share with Diny). Now, after watching Man U squandered that one goal lead against Chelsea (final score 1 - 1), off to pau making.

Dear Investor

This is hilarious if you understand investment & finance.

ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP
321 Overprice Street
Greenwich, CT
00573


Dear Investor,

This letter is to inform you that the wheels have come off of the proverbial wagon at ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP, and that the same awesome thematic portfolio that made you feel (in the first half-year) as if you'd become very rich in comparison to those sucking wind on their leveraged MBS portfolios or Japanese Small-Cap Value Funds, has, quite literally, spontaneously combusted in our faces.

Our long-oil (PBR, SU, SWN), long coal (MEE, BTU), long fertilizer (POT, MOS), and long iron ore (CLF, RIO) positions have been crushed (no pun intended), and though we remain hopeful going forward as the story remains "in tact", our models have forced us to sell some in response to prevailing price action. Our offsetting shorts in selected financials (MS, BLK, GS, and LM) have not fared as we expected, while our core retail and consumer discretionary shorts in AZO & URBN, DECK have quite literally been lodged deeply and inexplicably in an unmentionable orifice.

If that were all we'd not be too sullen, all things considered, but unfortunately our short US dollar positions (vs. everything), our JPYNZD & CHFAUD carry trades have also not performed to forecasted expectations, and both our our long-only, and zero-exposure long vs. short commodity baskets have imploded with a rapidity that would even frighten Taleb to vows of silence. Oh, and if that weren't enough, our gold and silver longs, too, have gone south as if trying to re-embed themselves in the ground, whilst the short Russell-2000 ETFs we've been using as a hedge have been behaving all-too priapically. These losses of course are not as bad - relatively speaking - as some of our peers (who regretfully are no longer in business) and should of course be viewed in the proper context of our delft avoidance of long exposure in the worst of the RMBS and CMBS sectors, our eschewing of becoming a CDO issuer/manager, and our resolve to avoid anything denominated in Icelandic Kronor. Unfortunately we still have a large (leveraged) position in high-yielding cov-lite loans, US sub-prime credit-card-backed receivables for which we remain unable to obtain sensible bids at levels near to where our auditors and administrators agreed that we should pay our prior year's incentive fees. Only our long Japanese REIT portfolio and our unlisted fund of Spanish Olive Groves have held their ground, though regretfully we refrained from hedging the currency risk, and so these too, are now in the red and eroding rapidly.

We have no explanation, since our trades are systematically based upon doing what others are doing (only, hopefully, faster... though, in this instance, not fast enough). Nor do we offer you apologies. You [presumably] knew the risks, and felt the glory (if only for a while). We do lament the the now-sky-high high-water mark, and the absence of performance fees (this year).

Finally, saving the best for last, we will be suspending redemptions as per the Force Majeure clause 6(c)-2 of the Private Placement Information Memorandum of the Fund. We trust you'll agree that only something supernatural could have torpedoed such a finely constructed portfolio put together by the best and the brightest Wall St. has to offer.

Yours sincerely,

Hugh G. Fallis - Managing Partner
ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP

Lehman Bankrupt, AIG on the Brink

Yesterday Lehman Bros filed for bankruptcy. Price came down 93% since 1-year ago. Today, I'm jolly pleased that Barclays (who walked away from talks to buy Lehman) came back to renegotiate especially the broker-dealer side. That helped a bit. But then another tragedy wacked us today. AIG, the biggest insurer in the world, is in the brink of bankruptcy due to sub-prime mortgage. The stock price crashed by 95% from over USD70 a share to around USD3 a share. So the Federal Reserve had to come up with an USD80 billion rescue package to avoid AIG filing for bankruptcy today. Gosh! That's why they say - The bigger you are, the harder you fall.

How big is AIG? Picture this: its total asset was worth USD 1 trillion. Note that the US GDP is around USD 13 trillion, making AIG’s asset about 7% of US GDP. AIG employs over 100,000 worldwide spanning 5 continents.

So thanks to the US tax payers, another major catstrophy in the financial world has been avoided. But wait a minute .. isn't it more like the rest of the world esp. Japan & China, who are financing this deal? Picture this - Fed need electronic money to finance this rescue (you call it "rescue" if its developed market, and "bail out" when its developing markets like Malaysia), the Fed will issue more bonds (which essentially are debts) which are mostly snapped up by countries with high savings rate like Asian countries. Hmmm .. might as well I go and ask Khazanah to do the bailing out.

Now, where's that small kitab? I need to go talkin kan my equity portfolio.

Ramadan Potluck

It was a fine Sunday, fit for a barbeque. But it's Ramadan .. what are we to do? Potluck iftar of course. Our house is the venue & just need to masak nasi and sup ekor/ox tail.

We got Dell, Mas & Co, Rosli, Rahiyah & Huda, the Malaysia Airlines families: Asmadi - Aniza, Baha - Ana, Ros. Plus all trailers a.k.a askars. Sam, Linda & Co - absent with apologies.

Kids - either playing games or watching Camp Rock.

Food: nasi, sup ekor, ayam masak lomak cili api, fried chicken for kids, urab, ikan bakar, sayur gorreng, roti jala, serimuka durian flavoured, ikan bilis cili

More Food: tembikai, blackberry, cara goreng, agar2 buah, tiramisu. Gallons of mango lassi, juices, teh tarik, nescafe tarik etc.
In other words - kenyang ya amat laa ..

Girls on Film

Posing in kitchen (Aniza using Shasya as tummy cover .. tau tak pe .. kih kih)

Baha the penglipur lara: corruption stories - slow2, nanti kena ISA!!

Khusyuk dengar cerita airport & immigration
(Note: Poster behind Asmadi is a cover for Nat's grafitti)

Nothing to do with anything. This is today's kueh bom. Just happy its now quite round, not penjong like last week's. Where last week, true to its name - kueh bom ni melotup-lotup, terus jadi ghope labu Sayong.

Popia Basah Day

Wanted to make popia basah & black pepper beef for iftar today, so needed to find a few things like: tauge, carrot, flour, shiitake mushroom, leek .. mmm, that's about it. So headed for Sainsbury's - coz parking is free.

But, its Ramadan .. so in the end, its the tummy who does all the shopping. A trolleyful at last.

Nafsu

So, got home & started on the popia. Now I know why the popia basah mamak infront of the small Giant Kelana Jaya is so good. The kulit is hand made! My hands & the pan were so messy just now.

Work in Progress

Inventory

Finished product for "export" (to Sam & Linda and Zamri & Maswa)

And finally - the black pepper beef, masin sket - so repair just before b'buka. Cantik kuali kan?

24

Market is ruthless. The bear ate my profits like nobody's business. I wish I could just go away on holiday for 1-month. Then come back & resume work. Umm, like its gonna get any better. The truth is I think it's gonna stay this way for the next 6 months. Pure torture.

Meetings during Ramadan .. hmmm.. I try my best to avoid. Coz I just don't know when the tummy is gonna growl. Like this afternoon, I think Alex heard the growlings, hence her questions about Ramadan.

Just completed Season 2 of 24. Thrilling! Very interesting depiction of White House management. Season 1 is almost like what's happening in the US at the moment, where a black senator (David Palmer = Obama) is in a race for the Presidency of the USA. Season 2 is quite wicked, full of conspiracies. Totally worth it.

Now, I should get some sleep before sahur. Nat's teacher is coming for a home visit tomorrow.

The Admirable Exercise of Restraint

It's getting chilly nowadays. The office has the heater on .. emmm .. ramad lah pulak. Coz its dry and I long for a gulp of cold diet coke .. fizzzzz!! Aaah .. ok ok, lets ponder an old article by Bro Rehman .. (I do not share some of his interpretations though .. anyway read on, a good article)

THE ADMIRABLE EXERCISE OF RESTRAINT
By : Rehman Rashid

RAMADAN commemorates the time of year during which the man who would
be the Prophet of Islam, Muhammad bin Abdullah, peace be upon him,
took his annual retreat into the hills behind Mecca to fast and
meditate in a spiritual cleansing.

About three weeks into that seclusion in the year 610, Muhammad
underwent the shattering experience that marked the commencement of
the Revelation of the Holy Quran — the affirmation and seal of the
great message of Abraham (Q3:95).

Ever since, Ramadan has been observed by Muslims as a month of dawn-
to-dusk fasting, prayer and spiritual observance (Q2:184-185). The
classical Arabic word for this abstinence is siyam or sawm. It refers
to a condition of stillness, expressing an ideal tranquility of mind,
heart and soul.

A mundane interpretation of the Fast says it is meant to remind
Muslims of what it feels like to be poor and hungry. To some extent
this is valid (though millions of Muslims would need no such
reminder), but the Fast is much deeper. It seeks to cleanse the
physical body by asserting the discipline of the will. As such,
fasting is an exercise in transcendence.

Yet, Ramadan is not meant to be a sequestered, joyless time. The
duties of life are not to be forgone; work continues by day, if at a
gentler pace to allow for leaner fuel. By night, families are meant
to commune at the Breaking of Fast, and married couples are
encouraged to intimacy (Q2:187) — many Muslim cultures consider
children conceived during the month of Ramadan to be doubly blessed.

Most of all, Ramadan is a time for the suspension of hostilities. The
Quran is too knowing of human nature blithely to call for peace and
goodwill, but for this one month, there was to be no warring.
Instead, antagonists were to reflect on themselves in contemplation
of who they are, what they are intended to do, how they are to do it,
and above all, why (Q4:94).

Ramadan is a time of contemplation towards clarity; of the analysis
of motives and deeds.

The 22nd or 23rd night of the month is known as Laylat Al-Qadr,
the "Night of Power" marking what is believed to be the actual
anniversary of the Revelation; of the conjoining of Heaven and Earth
for the salvation of Man. At this time, those who have most
diligently observed the Fast engage in night-long vigils of prayer
and meditation, with their physical constitutions cleansed and their
consciences clear and open to insight and epiphany.

A week or so later, with the sighting of the new moon, Ramadan ends
in the most important festival of the Muslim year — a day or two
spent in soulful memory of the departed, communal prayers, charitable
acts and festive family gatherings.

Ramadan is, therefore, a crucial annual check in the cycle of life.
Observed as it should be, each year includes a month in which
humanity pauses for a stock-taking and "spring-cleaning" of the
individual soul, and of the societies formed of them. In this noblest
of months, there is no place for negative thoughts — except insofar
as they can be seen for what they are, and pondered upon for
realisation, repentance, and forgiveness.

For all these reasons, the simple sacrifice of food and drink never
seems to be so great as to merit much fuss. Think of it as having an
earlier breakfast and skipping lunch, no big deal.

But, as Bob Marley observed, "a hungry man is an angry man". A
definite crabbiness does come with an empty belly — which is all the
more reason to welcome the discipline of fasting as a reminder to not
be such a grump about it. (Besides, Marley was referring to hunger
caused by repression, corruption and bigotry, not a passing
peckishness.)

In sum, though, the fundamental ethos of Ramadan is one of retreat.
Some take this literally, opting to take their annual leave off work
to ease back on the throttle and glide a loftier trajectory; perhaps
even spending the month in the Holy Land at this very special time of
year.

For most, the "retreat" has to be more internal than actual; furling
the sails to rest on calmer, more reflective waters.

In search of those calmer waters, there are certain places that are
best avoided during the fasting month. Pre-eminent among them are
the "food courts" of shopping malls and the buka puasa buffets of
hotels.

The final hour of the fasting day is perforce the longest and
hardest, hypoglycaemia being what it is. Remaining calm, therefore,
may be hardest of all when witnessing what happens in that hour in
such places during Ramadan.

They fill to overflowing with Muslims sitting at tables with their
dinners piled high before them congealing on their plates, ice
melting in their tumblers, tea cooling in their cups, waiting in dry-
mouthed and glazed-eyed anticipation for the call of the Azan, not to
pray but to eat.

What's worse, this never happens at any other time of year, when the
call to prayer means exactly that.

True, it is proper to break one's fast at the appointed time, but
this was supposed to be done with a piece of bread or fruit and a
drink of water prior to prayer, with a leisurely and hopefully
convivial dinner to follow. This is a perfectly sound dietary regimen
while fasting; gently restoring fodder to depleted alimentary systems.

Suddenly shoving a kilo of dates, rice, curry, satay, meat,
vegetables, lobster thermidor and air bandung down a parched throat
into an empty stomach, however, can play havoc with the system. Blood
drains from the head to the gut to deal with the sudden engorgement,
blood-sugar levels skyrocket, and the brain is left stuporous.

That the blessed hour of Maghrib throughout the holy month of Ramadan
in this country is now associated with such public spectacles of
preposterous gluttony — for an obsession with food to be the hallmark
of the fasting month — is a riddle to be contemplated with detachment
(Q42:37).

To all Muslims everywhere: Peace and Coolness be upon Thee. Enjoy the
month. Selamat Berbuka Puasa. (Q5:93.)

Indonesian Passport Extension

Part of my 1st day of Ramadan was spent at the Indonesian Consular, getting Kak Yah's passport expiry extended.

The location is at Adam's Row, W1K near Grosvenor Square (where the Indonesian Embassy is: 38 Grosvenor Square, London W1K 2HW, Tel: 020 7499 7661).
It looks kinda like a back lane! However I must say I was pleased to see that there's no queue! Not like the Indonesian Embassy in KL. The office is smallish with a just a few row of seats (3 rows x 6 kot), nothing like the Malaysian Immigration/Consular office. Machine ambik nombor pun kong!

This office is for those who decide to visit instead of mail their application for:
Renewal of passport/New passport.
Extension of passport expiry.
Visa to Indonesia.
Registration of new births.

Official times are:
10.30 - 13.30 Submission
14.30 - 16.00 Collection

Anyway, the officer was sempoy .. semua boleh. Among others:
Q: Bisa buat bayaran bila buat collection Pak?
A: Boleh

Q: Boleh fax kan saja bank statement?
A: Boleh

Q: Can my father fax his bank statement?
A: Can

Yang tak boleh: Pay by Cash. From 24 July 2007, the policy is to only accept payment either by postal order or bank draft.

So how to extend passport?
1. Fill in form (formulir) for extension, get it here (Form_Perpanjangan_Paspor)

2. If you are an Indonesian but yet to register your existence with the Embassy, you are required to fill in this form (include 1 passport photo),get it here (Form_Registrasi)

3. Write your details in the "black book" (register)

Wallah! That's it. Then you wait if there's not many people. Kak Yah's passport took about half hour from the point of submission. Best if you pre-fill all those forms. And extension is free!

Then we went back for iftar - mee kari!!! Yiihaaa!
Tapi nak tunggu 7.48 pm tu .. hmmm .. tengok movie la, Simpson la, exercise la.
Nasib baik la makin lama makin cepat Maghrib bulan pose nie.